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1 System Dynamics (SD) and its Applications Dr Zhiming Cai AMEC, Knutsford, Cheshire 2 Contents What is System Dynamics? SD Modelling Process Stock and Flow Model Building Checklist SD Model of Global Helium Resources and Simulation Results 3 What is System Dynamics? An approach to understanding how systems can generate their own problems An art A set of techniques and tools A set of computer simulation methods A language 4 Why system Dynamics? In the long history of evolution it has not been necessary until very recent historical times for people to understand complex feedback systems. Evolutionary processes have not given us the mental ability to interpret properly the dynamic behavior of those complex systems in which we are now embedded. Forrester, 1973 5 Complex systems when you are confronted by any complex system, such as an urban center or a hamster, with things about it you are dissatisfied with and anxious to fix, you cannot just step in and set about fixing with much hope of helping.

This realization is one of the sore discouragements of this century You cannot meddle with one part of a complex system from the outside without the almost certain risk of setting off disastrous events that you hadn t counted on in other remote parts. If you want to fix something you are obliged to first understand the whole system. Lewis Thomas, 1974 6 Policy Resistance Counter intuitive behaviour of social systems - Jay Forrester The best-laid schemes o mice an men gang aft a-gley -Burns And it will fall out as in a complication of diseases, that by applying a remedy to one sore, you will provoke another; and that which removes one ill symptom produces another -Sir Thomas More 7 Lessons Structure creates behaviour Greatest leverage comes from changing structure. Systems thinking helps in structure redesign. Cause of problem distant in time and space from symptoms 8 The Nature of Explanation L E V E R A G E Events Patterns of Behaviour Structure Feedback structures generate Patterns of behaviour.

Industrial Dynamics. Jay Forrester. Press, Cambridge, Mass.; Wiley, New York, 1961. Industrial Dynamics Posted in Processors Tags: industrial dynamics, industrial dynamics australia, industrial dynamics exton pa, industrial dynamics forrester, industrial dynamics forrester free download, industrial dynamics jay forrester, industrial dynamics mooresville nc, industrial dynamics pdf, industrial dynamics pty ltd.